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Scavenger Hunt: King Tomz Wittenberg (2000)

By Alexis Diamond · Statistics · Generalized Linear Models · Undergraduate · Computational / statistical · version 2

Students read the model's expected probability of voting by age for one hypothetical person, with confidence bars, and learn the curve is about a person you define while the bars show uncertainty in the model. Pinned curves and the break-it toggle are now shared state, so teammates see the same page.

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Licence: CC BY 4.0

Topicsexpected valuesconfidence intervalslogistic regressionsimulation of coefficients

Assumption ledger

  • dataCoefficients and covariance matrix are from the logistic regression turnout ~ age + agesqrd + educate + income + white on 15,837 respondents (turnout.dta); they are fixed, nothing is re-estimated
  • parameterDefaults: age 38, education 12, white = sample mean 0.8607, income = sample mean 3.96, 99% level, standard-error method, seed 1
  • distributionSimulate method draws 2,000 coefficient vectors from N(beta-hat, V-hat) with a seeded generator and takes percentiles
  • simplificationStandard-error method builds the interval on the log-odds scale and maps the ends through the logistic function; fundamental uncertainty is skipped because for a binary outcome it averages to the probability
  • interpretationSetting white to its mean 0.86 follows King, Tomz and Wittenberg (2000); the page lets students compare with 0 and 1
  • simplificationBreak-it uses age squared instead of age squared over 100 in the design row
  • parameterShared state holds only inputs: age, educ, white, income, level, method, seed, broken, the pinned comparison's inputs, and the reveal flag

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Cite this

Alexis Diamond (2026). Scavenger Hunt: King Tomz Wittenberg (2000) [Interactive model], version 2. Ideas at Play. https://ideasatplay.org/play/scavenger-hunt-king-tomz-wittenberg-2000-12e26f?v=2 (CC BY 4.0)

History

  1. v2Pinned comparison and the break-it toggle now live in window.artifact state (pinned stores only inputs, curves are recomputed), setState applies and redraws everything, every user change goes through one path that calls onChange subscribers, and onChange, controls, responses and referenceCases were added; projector text and theme stay per screen. (generated, Oct 19, 2026)current
  2. v1Imported; lineage before import is not available. (imported, Oct 7, 2026)View

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